Toward harmonizing prospective effectiveness assessment for road safety: Comparing tools in standard test case simulations

Abstract

Objective: With the overall goal to harmonize prospective effectiveness assessment of active safety systems, the specific objective of this study is to identify and evaluate sources of variation in virtual precrash simulations and to suggest topics for harmonization resulting in increased comparability and thus trustworthiness of virtual simulation-based prospective effectiveness assessment.

Methods: A round-robin assessment of the effectiveness of advanced driver assistance systems was performed using an array of state-of-the-art virtual simulation tools on a set of standard test cases. The results were analyzed to examine reasons for deviations in order to identify and assess aspects that need to be harmonized and standardized. Deviations between results calculated by independent engineering teams using their own tools should be minimized if the research question is precisely formulated regarding input data, models, and postprocessing steps.

Results: Two groups of sources of variations were identified; one group (mostly related to the implementation of the system under test) can be eliminated by using a more accurately formulated research question, whereas the other group highlights further harmonization needs because it addresses specific differences in simulation tool setups. Time-to-collision calculations, vehicle dynamics, especially braking behavior, and hit-point position specification were found to be the main sources of variation.

Conclusions: The study identified variations that can arise from the use of different simulation setups in assessment of the effectiveness of active safety systems. The research presented is a first of its kind and provides significant input to the overall goal of harmonization by identifying specific items for standardization. Future activities aim at further specification of methods for prospective assessments of the effectiveness of active safety, which will enhance comparability and trustworthiness in this kind of studies and thus contribute to increased traffic safety.     

Sulphate, Nitrogen and Base Cation Budgets at 21 Forested Catchments in Canada, the United States and Europe

To assess the concern over declining base cation levels in forest soils caused by acid deposition, input-output budgets (1990s average) for sulphate (SO₄), inorganic nitrogen (NO₃-N; NH₄-N), calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg) and potassium (K) were synthesised for 21 forested catchments from 17 regions in Canada, the United States and Europe. Trend analysis was conducted on monthly ion concentrations in deposition and runoff when more than 9 years of data were available (14 regions, 17 sites). Annual average SO₄ deposition during the 1990s ranged between 7.3 and 28.4 kg ha⁻¹ per year, and inorganic nitrogen (N) deposition was between 2.8 and 13.8 kg ha⁻¹ per year, of which 41–67% was nitrate (NO₃-N). Over the period of record, SO₄ concentration in deposition decreased in 13/14 (13 out of 14 total) regions and SO₄ in runoff decreased at 14/17 catchments. In contrast, NO₃-N concentrations in deposition decreased in only 1/14 regions, while NH₄-N concentration patterns varied; increasing at 3/14 regions and decreasing at 2/14 regions. Nitrate concentrations in runoff decreased at 4/17 catchments and increased at only 1 site, whereas runoff levels of NH₄-N increased at 5/17 catchments. Decreasing trends in deposition were also recorded for Ca, Mg, and K at many of the catchments and on an equivalent basis, accounted for up to 131% (median 22%) of the decrease in acid anion deposition. Base cation concentrations in streams generally declined over time, with significant decreases in Ca, Mg and K occurring at 8, 9 and 7 of 17 sites respectively, which accounted for up to 133% (median 48%) of the decrease in acid anion concentration. Sulphate export exceeded input at 18/21 catchments, likely due to dry deposition and/or internal sources. The majority of N in deposition (31–100%; median 94%) was retained in the catchments, although there was a tendency for greater NO₃-N leaching at sites receiving higher (<7 kg ha^-1 per year) bulk inorganic N deposition. Mass balance calculations show that export of Ca and Mg in runoff exceeds input at all 21 catchments, but K export only exceeds input at 16/21 sites. Estimates of base cation weathering were available for 18 sites. When included in the mass balance calculation, Ca, Mg and K exports exceeded inputs at 14, 10 and 2 sites respectively. Annual Ca and Mg losses represent appreciable proportions of the current exchangeable soil Ca and Mg pools, although losses at some of the sites likely occur from weathering reactions beneath the rooting zone and there is considerable uncertainty associated with mineral weathering estimates. Critical loads for sulphur (S) and N, using a critical base cation to aluminium ratio of 10 in soil solution, are currently exceeded at 7 of the 18 sites with base cation weathering estimates. Despite reductions in SO₄ and H⁺ deposition, mass balance estimates indicate that acid deposition continues to acidify soils in many regions with losses of Ca and Mg of primary concern. The U.S. Government's right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledged. The Canadian Crown reserves the right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright.     

让我们积极应对气候变化

气候确实在发生变化。以往人们随意地认为这与温室效应气体排放量的增加有关，现在这种观点已得到充分证实。自1991年以来．已出现了自有记录以来全球气温最高的十个年份．而在上个世纪，温度上升7约0.6摄氏度。在同一期间内，全球的海平面上升了约20厘米．部分原因是陆地上冰层融化．海洋自身发生热膨胀。许多山峰上的冰盖正在消失．最近几十年来，夏秋季节北冰洋的冰层厚     

Mitigation of the Impact of Tropical Cyclones in Northern Australia through Community Capacity Enhancement

Community mitigation of hazard impact requires hazard knowledge and preparedness on the part of the members of diverse and complex communities. Longitudinal research in the tropical cyclone prone north of Australia has gathered extensive datasets on community awareness, preparedness and knowledge, in order to contribute to education campaigns and mitigation strategies. Data have been used to identify issues of vulnerability to cyclones and capacity to deal with the hazard. This has been developed as a community vulnerability and capacity model that may be applied to diverse communities in order to assess levels of capability to mitigate and deal with the cyclone hazard. The model is presented here in a simplified form as its development is evolving and ongoing.     

Taxing Meat: Taking Responsibility for One’s Contribution to Antibiotic Resistance

Antibiotic use in animal farming is one of the main drivers of antibiotic resistance both in animals and in humans. In this paper we propose that one feasible and fair way to address this problem is to tax animal products obtained with the use of antibiotics. We argue that such tax is supported both by (a) deontological arguments, which are based on the duty individuals have to compensate society for the antibiotic resistance to which they are contributing through consumption of animal products obtained with the use of antibiotics; and (b) a cost-benefit analysis of taxing such animal products and of using revenue from the tax to fund alternatives to use of antibiotics in animal farming. Finally, we argue that such a tax would be fair because individuals who consume animal products obtained with the use of antibiotics can be held morally responsible, i.e. blameworthy, for their contribution to antibiotic resistance, in spite of the fact that each individual contribution is imperceptible.     

Effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 and tropospheric O3 on tree branch growth and implications for hydrologic budgeting

The forest hydrologic budget may be impacted by increasing CO₂ and tropospheric O₃. Efficient means to quantify such effects are beneficial. We hypothesized that changes in the balance of canopy interception, stem flow, and through-fall in the presence of elevated CO₂ and O₃ could be discerned using image analysis of leafless branches. We compared annual stem flow to the results of a computerized analysis of all branches from the 2002, 2004, and 2006 annual growth whorls of 97 ten-year-old trees from the Aspen Free-Air CO₂ and O₃ Enrichment (Aspen FACE) experiment in Rhinelander, WI. We found significant effects of elevated CO₂ and O₃ on some branch metrics, and that the branch metrics were useful for predicting stem flow from birch, but not aspen. The results of this study should contribute to development of techniques for efficient characterization of effects on the forest hydrologic budget of increasing CO₂ and tropospheric O₃.     

The Inhibition of Photochemical Smog

Additional inhibitors for the conversion of NO to NO₂ in C3H6—NO—0₂ irradiated mixtures have been tested at 25°C. These mixtures initially contained 16 mTorr C₃H₆, 8 mTorr NO, 0.012 mTorr NO₂, additive, and enough O₂ to bring the total pressure to 100 Torr. The NO₂ pressure was monitored photometrically. In the absence of additive, the NO₂ pressure first increases with irradiation time reaching a maximum conversion at about 15 minutes. As the irradiation time increases beyond 15 min, the NO₂ pressure drops. Before adding the inhibitors, runs were done with 10 Torr of CO added, and in these runs the conversion was speeded so that the maximum in NO₂ pressure occurred at 10 min. This enhancement in conversion rate is considered to be diagnostic for the presence of HO radicals. Next 10-min irradiations were done with various amounts of hexafluorobenzene (C₆F₆), nitrobenzene (C₆H₅NO₂), or naphtha lene (C₁₀H₈) added. The NO₂ pressure was reduced to one-half its value in the absence of inhibitor with 270 mTorr C₆F₆’, 220 mTorr C₆H₅N0₂, or 4 mTorr C₁₀Hg. The C₁₀H₈ is a very efficient inhibitor, but additions of up to 1 8.5 mTorr C₁₀H₈ did not reduce the N0₂ pressure to zero. Studies of the percent conversion of NO to NO₂ vs. irradiation time were done with either 4.2 mTorr C₁₀H₈ or 40 mTorr 2,6-di-ferf-butyl-4-methylphenol (Ph) added. In the former case the peak conversion was delayed from 15 to 22 min, while in the latter case no delay occurred. However, with the Ph added, there appeared to be some reduction in the maximum value of percent conversion.